| Someone please fast-forward to Wednesday at 2 p.m. and hit play! U.S. equity markets have been mostly flat in recent days, moving sideways on light trading volume as the major indexes hover near record highs after their latest rebound. All eyes are on tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, where the market broadly anticipates a 25-bps rate cut. Precious metals (gold and silver) have climbed in anticipation of easier policy, while Bitcoin bounced today ahead of the decision. Aside from a few notable earnings reports, recent S&P index adjustments, and company updates at various Wall Street and industry conferences (including ASH), markets have largely remained in a “holding pattern.” The Technology sector (XLK) has now logged 12 consecutive days of gains, pushing its year-to-date return above 27% (with Communications, XLC, in second place at +19.5%), ahead of major earnings this week from ORCL in software/AI and AVGO in semis/AI. FOMC preview: Current market expectations (“what’s already priced in”) call for a 25-bps cut, unchanged forward guidance, and a 2026 median dot still signaling one cut. The key factor for keeping stocks supported into year-end is that the Fed avoids hinting at a pause in the rate-cut cycle. In a dovish scenario, the Fed delivers a 25-bps cut, keeps guidance steady, and the dot plot reflects more than one cut in 2026—signaling a stronger commitment to easing and extending the rate-cut cycle into next year. A hawkish scenario would involve either no cut (which is unlikely), guidance shifting toward a pause, or the dot plot showing zero cuts in 2026. |